A no-bullshit, practical approach to markets and economics.
One piece a week on what is actually moving markets and the economy, and what it means for stocks.
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#04: Copper, Curves and a Crowded Trade
COT data shows the copper long is now the most crowded commodity trade of the year: what positioning extremes have meant historically, and how we are reading the week ahead.
#03: The Long End Won't Behave
The 30-year is telling a different story to the Fed: term premium, supply indigestion, and what a steepening curve has historically meant for equity valuations.
#02: Earnings Season Opens with a Squeeze
Banks kick off Q2 earnings into the most crowded short base since 2024, plus narrowing breadth, positioning, and three conviction-score movers for the watchlist.
#01: The Cut That Wasn't
Markets walked into July priced for a cut and walked out repricing the whole curve: what the hot inflation print means for equity multiples, and where our conviction scores rotated.