#04: Copper, Curves and a Crowded Trade
COT data shows the copper long is now the most crowded commodity trade of the year: what positioning extremes have meant historically, and how we are reading the week ahead.
DC Economics
Managed-money accounts are now net long 78,412 contracts of COMEX copper, the largest position in three years and the 96th percentile of the five-year range. The COT heatmap on the DC Economics macro dashboard has flagged copper as the single most crowded commodity long of 2026, and the price action agrees: front-month settled Friday at $5.18/lb, up 2.6% on the week and 24% year to date.
The futures curve has flipped alongside the flows. LME cash traded at a $58/t premium to three-month metal by Friday's close, the first sustained backwardation since 2024, while on-warrant LME inventories have fallen 38% this year to 92,300 tonnes. Spot markets are genuinely tight; this is not purely a paper rally.
Both things can be true at once: the demand story is real, and the trade is crowded. Grid spending, data-centre buildouts and vehicle electrification are pulling physical metal, yet a 96th-percentile long means most of the buyers who believe the story have already bought. Crowded is a condition, not a catalyst. But conditions like this change how the next surprise gets priced.